Iran and Hormuz: energy risk reaches company profit margins.

What resolves the market
Change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its level before the October 27–28, 2026 meeting. The FOMC statement determines the result; nonstandard moves follow the contract’s 25 bp rounding rule.

Deadline
October 28, 2026 decision. If no statement is issued, resolution may wait until the next meeting.

Resolution source
FOMC statement / Federal Reserve

Conditions and exceptions

• The reference is the target range’s upper limit, compared with its level immediately before the October 27–28 meeting. It is not the observed effective rate.
• An unlisted change is rounded up in magnitude to a 25-basis-point increment: 12.5 becomes 25, preserving direction.
• Resolution can follow the statement’s release. If it is still absent at the end of the next scheduled meeting, the contract assigns «No change».

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
No change	US$245.5K	1 pp
25 bp increase	US$225.3K	1 pp
50+ bp increase	US$592.4K	0.1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
The person formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister following the 2026 parliamentary election. Caretakers do not count. If nobody qualifies by December 31, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET, the outcome is Other.

Deadline
Final deadline: December 31, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET.

Resolution source
Government of Israel; credible reporting consensus

Conditions and exceptions

• If an early election occurs, the appointed and sworn-in prime minister following that election counts. Interim and caretaker appointments do not.
• If nobody qualifies by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET, the result is «Other». The API’s technical end date does not replace that deadline.
• Official Israeli government information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Gadi Eizenkot	US$208.7K	0.7 pp
Benjamin Netanyahu	US$799.9K	1 pp
Naftali Bennett	US$138.5K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
Winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, including any runoff. Credible reporting determines the result; ambiguous cases use official TSE results. If the result is unknown by June 30, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET, the outcome is Other.

Deadline
2026 election, including any runoff. Final deadline: June 30, 2027, 11:59 p.m. ET.

Resolution source
Credible reporting; official TSE results if ambiguous

Conditions and exceptions

• The contract covers the 2026 election and any runoff. It follows the winner, not a polling lead.
• Resolution follows credible reporting consensus. If ambiguous, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court’s official result takes precedence.
• If the result remains unknown on June 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET, the contract assigns «Other».

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Flávio Bolsonaro	US$351.6K	0.1 pp
Lula da Silva	US$336.8K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
Owner of the top-ranked model on arena.ai Text Arena Overall, with no style control and the Models filter, on October 31 at noon ET. AutoEval models are excluded; ties use score and then alphabetical order. The ranking does not prove superiority for every use.

Deadline
October 31, 2026, noon ET.

Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena Overall

Conditions and exceptions

• The check is Text Arena Overall on arena.ai at noon ET on October 31, with style adjustment off and the Models filter. AutoEval entries are excluded.
• Leaderboard rank comes first, then Arena score using available unrounded precision, then alphabetical order of company names in this market group.
• If unavailable at the scheduled time, the first check after the leaderboard returns is used. Permanent unavailability resolves as «Other».

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Anthropic	US$21.8K	1 pp
Google	US$28.6K	1.8 pp
OpenAI	US$53.9K	0.2 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
Resolves No if the US carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts Iranian territory by October 31, 11:59 p.m. Iran time. Interceptions, threats, cyber operations and other excluded actions do not count. This is not a general definition of peace.

Deadline
October 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. Iran time.

Resolution source
Official US/Iran government and military information, plus credible reporting

Conditions and exceptions

• Only impacts on Iranian land and internal waters qualify. Territory both claimed and effectively controlled by Iran at market creation is included; territorial seas and airspace are excluded.
• Qualifying US-initiated attacks are air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, including air-launched and one-way attack drones.
• Intercepted munitions or their debris, surface-to-air missiles, small arms, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, mortars, artillery rockets, short-range loitering or FPV drones, antitank missiles, threats and unexecuted authorizations are excluded.
• Disputed occurrence, attribution or timing can delay resolution until consensus or three full Iranian calendar days after initial credible evidence, even beyond the deadline. At that point, all available evidence is weighed; no isolated statement controls.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Contract	US$109.1K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
Change in the upper bound of the target range relative to the level before the December 8–9, 2026 meeting, determined by the FOMC statement. This is not the cumulative change since September.

Deadline
December 9, 2026 decision. If no statement is issued, resolution may wait until the next meeting.

Resolution source
FOMC statement / Federal Reserve

Conditions and exceptions

• The upper target-range limit is compared with its level before the December 8–9 meeting. This is not the cumulative change from today.
• An unlisted change is rounded up in magnitude to a 25-basis-point increment, preserving direction.
• Without a statement by the end of the next scheduled meeting, resolution is «No change». Separately priced contracts can add to more or less than 100%; no adjustment is applied.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
25 bp increase	US$127.8K	1 pp
No change	US$191.5K	1 pp
50+ bp increase	US$126.2K	0.1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
A public, official and definitive decision to generally terminate or suspend the naval blockade on Iranian ships and their customers by December 31, 11:59 p.m. ET. Partial exemptions and conditional proposals do not qualify. A qualifying announcement counts even if later reversed.

Deadline
December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET.

Resolution source
Official US government announcements: President, Defense, State, CENTCOM or authorized officials

Conditions and exceptions

• A present, definitive and general decision must be communicated through official channels by an authorized representative. Announcing that the blockade will not begin, or a return to a prior framework, qualifies if general termination is unmistakable.
• Some restrictions, such as fees, may remain. A vessel, cargo or port exception is insufficient. Ambiguous references, conditional plans, informal remarks, unconfirmed leaks, third-party predictions and fabricated or impersonated communications do not qualify.
• A valid announcement resolves «Yes» even if later reversed or never implemented. Sources include the US government, President, Defense, State, CENTCOM and authorized spokespersons.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Contract	US$195.5K	0.2 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
A one-minute BTC/USDT Binance candle must have a final high of at least 100,000 between November 24, 2025, 2 p.m. ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. This is a touch threshold, not a year-end closing-price forecast.

Deadline
December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET.

Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs

Conditions and exceptions

• Window: November 24, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
• A completed one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle must have a high of at least US$100,000. That observation can trigger resolution immediately.
• Other venues, pairs and markets do not count. Holding that level or closing the year above it is unnecessary.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Contract	US$100.3K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
Ohio must enact a statute or constitutional provision imposing a binding statewide moratorium on new data centers or the defined subset above 100 MW per facility. Executive orders, local measures and incentive withdrawals do not qualify. Enactment, not the effective date, determines the result.

Deadline
December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET.

Resolution source
Official Ohio state information; credible reporting consensus

Conditions and exceptions

• A mandatory statewide statute or constitutional provision must suspend approvals, permitting, construction, grid connection or operation for all new data centers, or a group including every new facility above 100 MW.
• Removing incentives, local moratoriums, executive or agency orders and merely granting discretionary authority are insufficient. Specific exemptions are compatible if prohibition remains the default.
• A triggering condition must be objective, not left to future discretionary agency findings or certifications. Suspension until a condition is met can qualify.
• Enactment includes signature, veto override, becoming law without signature and other valid routes. For a referendum, the approval election day reflected in certified results counts. Legislative passage or promised signature alone is insufficient; removed or vetoed text does not count unless the veto is overridden.
• Enactment date matters, not implementation or effective date. Subsequent repeal, adverse judgment, expiration or nonimplementation does not undo a qualifying enactment.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Contract	US$272.3K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.

What resolves the market
IMF PortWatch must publish a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for a date through December 31, 2026. Normality means this contractual threshold, not an overall assessment of safety or capacity.

Deadline
Data through December 31, 2026; up to 14 days for final data publication.

Resolution source
IMF PortWatch: Strait of Hormuz transit calls

Conditions and exceptions

• Only IMF PortWatch is used: a seven-day moving average of ship arrivals/transits reaching 60. Only vessel classes recorded by that series count.
• Resolution can follow a threshold observation or the final day’s publication without one. If that final data point is absent fourteen calendar days after the period, available published data decides.
• Within-period revisions count but cannot disqualify an already published qualifying observation. Revisions after December 31 data is published are excluded.
• Obvious recording errors may allow up to three ET calendar days for correction. Disagreement with another source alone is not such an error.

Conditions at retrieval

Outcome	Liquidity	Spread
Contract	US$432.5K	1 pp

24-hour volume covers the full event; liquidity and spread are per contract. Outcomes may not cover every result. Prices are neither added together nor normalized.