México
Mexico holds at 6.50% as inflation and activity send different signals.
Banxico keeps its policy rate unchanged. Headline inflation rises while core inflation continues to moderate.
The fact
On September 24, Banxico held its overnight target at 6.50%. Between the first halves of July and September, headline inflation rose from 3.10% to 3.42%, while core inflation fell from 3.95% to 3.79%.
Why it matters for capital
For a leveraged business, an unchanged policy rate does not mean an unchanged all-in financing cost: maturity, credit spread and currency also matter.
The scenarios
Continued core disinflation would support a more favourable reading. Energy, currency or conflict could complicate it. Another central bank’s path is not an automatic template for Mexico.
The next signal
Compare the next inflation release with exchange rates and activity. Revisit the reading after each policy decision.
Sources, dates and method
Banco de México · 2026-09-24 ↗
Data period: Decisión del 24 de septiembre; inflación primera quincena de septiembre de 2026
Accessed: 30/09/2026. Original ALTA EDICIÓN summary and analysis. Scenarios are editorial interpretation. Source references open within ALTA EDICIÓN.