China
China returns to manufacturing expansion. The improvement is still narrow.
The official PMI rises to 50.1. Medium and small businesses remain below the expansion threshold.
The fact
September manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1. Production stood at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5. Medium-sized firms registered 49.7 and small firms 48.9. These are diffusion indexes, not GDP growth rates.
Why it matters for capital
Recovering production can support demand for inputs, transport and working capital. The aggregate reading does not establish that all businesses are improving.
The scenarios
If orders keep pace with production, the recovery could broaden. If sales fail to absorb output, the adjustment may appear in inventories or margins.
The next signal
Review orders, employment and firm size in the next PMI, then compare with industrial production. A persistent return below 50 would weaken this reading.
Sources, dates and method
Oficina Nacional de Estadística de China · 2026-09-30 ↗
Data period: Septiembre de 2026
Accessed: 30/09/2026. Original ALTA EDICIÓN summary and analysis. Scenarios are editorial interpretation. Source references open within ALTA EDICIÓN.