European confidence weakens. Activity must test the signal.
An expectations survey does not by itself establish a recession.
September 29, 2026
The fact
The September euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator was 97.9, down 0.5 points. Employment expectations were 97.5, down 1.3 points. The long-term average is 100.
Why it matters
Survey changes are measured in index points, not changes in GDP. Compare expectations with demand and hiring evidence.
The next signal
Orders, activity releases and company earnings can confirm or challenge the reading.